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Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season/Marie
13E.MARIE Aoi:GFS storm #2 GFS shows it in the long range. Could develop in the ATL before then. Right off Africa. Makes it a major as well. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 00:39, August 13, 2014 (UTC) :Makes it a 949mbar hurricane by day 16. Last time I saw a model non-HWRF/GFDL be this aggressive in the EPAC was in 2009. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 06:08, August 13, 2014 (UTC) ::GFS for the past 4 days or so so has been calling for a major. Most runs keep it well-offfshore. Not this. It calls for a TS over southern California and a hurricane near Baja. GFS waits a bit to develop, but CMC, FIM, and UKMEt suggest this could form by Day 5. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 20:38, August 16, 2014 (UTC) :::0/30. Over the past two days, there has been a bit of a model war. Two days ago, the Euro was keeping this offshore, while the GFS/CMC had it hitting California. Now, the reverse has happened, though the latest Euro run keeps this offshore as well. As for as intensification goes, the sky is the limit. One thing I would like to point out, however, is the models tendency to move a storm too slowly and thus have it lasting over warmer SST's longer than what actually happened. 95E and Ivo 13 were victims of this in a very big way, as they were initially forecast to be majors. Still, given that 11E and 12E are moving slowly, as well as the overall warm SST's this year than last, led me to believe that this system is for real. Also worth pointing out that the CMC and the Euro are in better agreement now than they were in both Octave, Ivo, and 95E's case in 2013, as well as in Rosa's 12 case. We do have a Kelvin Wave support this time around; however, it is uncertain whether we will have the MJO's support. Models are in good agreement on MJO passing through both basins. However, it may be mistaken it for a CCKW in the models, and/or increase moisture due to Pouch 17/18L's broad but poorly organized area of convection. Many experts such as Levi have even argued that MJO does not retrograde at all. However, I do think MJO will arrive eventually. As we approach fall, it usually intensifies a bit. The last MJO pulse generated us Iselle and Julio and that was moderate. This one will likely be almost as strong as the one that got as storms I-L last year, and that was very strong. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 04:53, August 18, 2014 (UTC) ::::I don't know what to expect from the AOI, but it sounds like a re-Jimena (2009) or Norbert (2008) to me based on your description, YE. Nevertheless, development should be rather slow in the short-term. Chances of formation, BTW, are up to '''40%' for the next five days. AndrewTalk To Me 10:12, August 18, 2014 (UTC) :::::Not Norbert. That had an entirely different troughing set up, one you typically see with evil landfalling hurricanes. Latest GFS has it peaking at ~950 mbar, then brushing Central California as a moderate to strong TS. Both the GFS and the Euro (as well as the CMC) have shifted eastward this run, but keep it a bit offshore still. However, the HWRF has it moving quite east, and based on extrapolation only, has it into Cabo San Lucas in a little over a week. Jimena 09 and John 06 were forecast to move near Baja by models early on, when the guidance, especially the UKMET (which develops this in a few days, faster than any other model, even the CMC) had it move west. Guess what? It verified. This could get very interesting. As long as shear is low, this should have terrific conditions to work with. I'd give this about a 10-20% of becoming a Cat 5. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 17:33, August 18, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Up to 0% (60%), this might be of a potential future major or even C5 hurricane. We should really monitor this closely because it might become very powerful in the future. --Steve820 18:17, August 18, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Models are really agressive with future Marie all of them develop and most if not all show at least cat 3. Marie might finally be the one to shine and be the cat 5 of the season.Allanjeffs 22:32, August 18, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Latest GFS run has this to 940mbar. Track shifted west towards Baja in the latest runs from both the Euro and GFS. This could get interesting. This is starting to remind me of my favorite EPAC TC of all time, Rick 09. I'd give it a 30% of becoming a Cat 5 IMO. There's nothing stopping this. It has super warm waters. It has a CCKW coming, low shear per GFS, and extreme model support. Even the conservative models like the Euro and the UKMET are bullish with this. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 23:58, August 18, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::YE, you are really scaring me with that description of the AOI. :O I am now expecting '''at bare minimum' a C3 from this. It's currently over Central America, and in the long run, it will have near perfect conditions to develop. The AOI is on the TWO now, and chances of formation are now near 0% for the next 48 hours and 70% for the next five days. AndrewTalk To Me 00:26, August 19, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::Well, the NOGAPS and FIM don't do much with it. Also I need to remind you that models for a while last year showed a Cat 3 hurricane off the west coast of MX for a system that didn't even develop. Ditto in October 2012, though that got messed up due to the huge east coast trough and when it starting showing Sandy's bend to the NW. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 00:54, August 19, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::This is getting scary. It will almost certainly be our next major if trends continue, in fact we could even see a C5 out of this. Looks like Marie will probably be a very powerful system. It's even more scary in that, according to YE above, it's track is leaning towards Baja in the model runs from GFS and Euro. :O --Steve820 02:58, August 19, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::::Actually, looking at the pattern, there is enough ridging it appears to force it W. Still looks like the most likely case. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 03:05, August 19, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::::I think we've been a little too bullish with this. This run is much weaker this time around. GFS calls for a major, and still pretty intense, just not the 940 mbar shown earlier. or this run, the track is a bit more NE. However, a ridge arrives just in time to send it W, and after around day 7, the track shifts quite a bit more to the W. I'm pretty sure, for now, this won't hit land. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 04:49, August 19, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::::::I don't think I've ever seen NHC forecast something like this. While it's not expected to develop over the next two days, they've placed a 70% chance for the next 5, and it's moving over very favorable conditions. It'd be really cool to see a cat 5 out of this, the first in the EPac, let alone the Western Hemisphere, in 4 years. It should remain offshore, however its remnants could potentially impact parts of California in two weeks. That's really far out and lots of things could change, but either way, this is going to be very interesting. 'Ryan1000' 10:58, August 19, 2014 (UTC) 92E.INVEST Invest'd. 30/80. Models trending SW, but 100% agreement on a major. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 00:02, August 20, 2014 (UTC) : It'd be really cool to see a C5 out of this since it probably won't affect land in the future, and future-Marie might just be something very powerful. It's got so much time in very favorable conditions and I wouldn't be surprised to see a C5 from this. This system is one to watch. --Steve820 00:16, August 20, 2014 (UTC) :::I would not either. Probs more deserving of attention of 96L from a tracker prospective (much greater shot at becoming something big). Models are trending SW, so land threat is not serious at this time. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 00:28, August 20, 2014 (UTC) ::::92E looks a little disorganized ATM, so it may need a couple of days to get ready to become a very strong cyclone. AndrewTalk To Me 02:40, August 20, 2014 (UTC) :::::40/80. Latest GFS shows a 934 mbar hurricane and a near-miss of Central California. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 14:55, August 20, 2014 (UTC) :::::::50/80. Looks worse, but models still bomb this out. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 18:56, August 20, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::It actually looks a little better. I expect a strong cat 3 out of this at the very least, but a mid-level cat 4 or even cat 5 is not out of the question with the way the models have been behaving on this one. I'm fairly confident it will remain well south of Mexico, but like Lowell, it's remnants could bring some rainfall to California in the long run (about a week or so). 'Ryan1000' 21:25, August 20, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::Up to 70/80, this will no doubt be a major. In fact it might even reach C5 strength. If it brings rain to California we really need it because of our extreme drought; the moisture surge from Lowell might also help a bit. --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 01:33, August 21, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::::Models a little more NW and somewhat weaker, but this storm is getting better. Developing slightly faster than expected. I'm expecting Friday to be an RI day based on the passage of a CCKW. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 05:11, August 21, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::It's now 70/90, I expect it to be a depression later today.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 17:06, August 21, 2014 (UTC) <- A the subtropical ridge should prevent Marie from landfalling in CA, but what's worrying is that ex-Lowell will leave a trough behind that could pick up Marie. Extratopical transition in EPac is especially rare so we could be dealing with a Ignacio or Guillermo if this blows up. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:10, August 21, 2014 (UTC) :It's now 80/90. GFS track shifting NE, bringing it to 951mbar. Aside from surf and beach erosion, this isn't much of a land threat. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 22:39, August 21, 2014 (UTC) ::90/90. ATCF has it a 30 knts TD. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 02:42, August 22, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Already starting to bomb...--Isaac829 03:41, August 22, 2014 (UTC) :This could become a Cat 2 tomorrow easily. Looks T2.5 based on my analysis. I think this could make a run at Cat 4 assuming no ERC occurs. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 03:45, August 22, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Marie Recent ASCAT passes indicate winds of 35 knots (40 mph) north of the center. However, since convection has increased since then, winds are estimated to be at 40 knots (45 mph) per the NHC, with a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). With a low-level ring already present in ''Marie's circulation, combined with 30C SST's and extremely moist air, RI is bound to occur. The latest NHC forecast is a blend of what SHIPS and LGEM predict - winds of 105 knots (120 mph). A mid-level high over the GOM should build westward over the EPAC, keeping Marie moving WNW. Along with RI comes large size, as noted by the NHC. Prepare for major #6, guys! :) AndrewTalk To Me 08:48, August 22, 2014 (UTC) : 120 mph is undercasting, but of course, NHC almost always goes conservative. RI is almost a definite. Marie should, based on the warm SST's and low shear ahead of it, peak at 140-150 mph. The good news is TS force winds should remain offshore of Mexico, but they still need to watch out for high surf. Ryan1000 11:10, August 22, 2014 (UTC) : I am pretty confident this will be a cat 5. Allanjeffs 12:12, August 22, 2014 (UTC) :: I am also pretty confident we will see a C5 from this. This surely has some rapid intensification potential and the NHC is already forecasting a major. Marie's about to be very powerful! --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 16:51, August 22, 2014 (UTC) :::: Yeah, this thing is taking off. Fast. Current NHC forecast now makes Marie a 135 mph category 4, and I still think that's very conservative. I expect it to, at the bare minimum, peak as a 155 mph cat 4, but a 175-185 mph category 5 is much more likely. Ryan1000 23:46, August 22, 2014 (UTC) ::::::ATCF ups it to 60 knts. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 01:25, August 23, 2014 (UTC) :::::::She is just stunning. She might rival Rick in intensity.Allanjeffs 02:16, August 23, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Adv makes it to 60 knts. Stupid SAB and TAFB constraints. Assuming no unexpected dry air/ERC gets in the way, it should reach Cat 5. NHC even calls for 125 knt peak. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 04:10, August 23, 2014 (UTC) (edit conflict) Man, this season just keeps on coming! I can't believe a season like this is coming right on the heels of a year as weak as 2013. Granted, I would've preferred if this was named ''Norbert so that the name could keep its reputation as a powerful hurricane (out of the past three Norberts, two were Category 4s and the third was also a hurricane), plus it'd be nice if we could get a male Category 4/5 to match up with juggernauts like Amanda and Cristina, but hey, when it comes to fish storms forecast to explode, entertainment is entertainment no matter what the name. This is probably the first time I've ever seen the NHC predict Category 4 intensity while a storm was still just a TS. With Marie on the verge of bombing, Karina's unexpected reclamation of hurricane strength, and potential future Cristobal (96L) looming in the Atlantic, this will be an interesting weekend in the tropics. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 04:16, August 23, 2014 (UTC) :96L is very complex case. It could stall near the Bahamas if it misses the trough. If that happens, it will hit SFL or keep stalling and get re-curve out to sea. If it gets picked up by the trough, it could re-curve like Bertha. But back this this system, Marie is in the midst of RI, and could be entering the EI soon. It'd expect a major sometime tomorrow. As I said on other forums, this could be one of the strongest EPAC storms on record. Good news is the only real land threat is surf. But man, this could be epic. However, September could be a very quit month by slightly above normal shear and downward motion due to lack of MJO. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 05:29, August 23, 2014 (UTC) Hurricane Marie Latest advisory is out, now a hurricane with 75 mph and 992 mbars. Dylan, Hurricane Rick of 2009 was forecast to become a cat 4 when it was only a tropical depression, and we all know how strong he became. Since NHC is forecasting 145 mph soon, and Marie is only a cat 1, it wouldn't surprise me if Marie explodes to a cat 5 as well. I mean, this thing is just looking prime to RI or even EI. 'Ryan1000' 10:37, August 23, 2014 (UTC) Take THAT GENEVIEVE :D anyway... Lemme predict... Category 5? “i liek turtlez 13:56, August 23, 2014 (UTC) :Man, this storm is massive. I can only imagine how quickly it would intensify if it were the size of, say, Paula. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:22, August 23, 2014 (UTC) :Hmmmm.... in order for Marie to stop intensifying, lemme do this... #IceBucketChallenge Yes, I've just done it. I challenge Marie to do it. Anyway..... ;) “i liek turtlez 15:34, August 23, 2014 (UTC) ::No eye visible yet...--Isaac829 15:52, August 23, 2014 (UTC) :::Give 96L the ice bucket challenge, not Marie. Leave the EPAC alone >:( As for the lack of an eye, I would like to remind everybody that Rick 09, Linda 97, Celia 10, and to a lesser extent, Kiko 83 had no eye at this stage of their careers. Guess how strong they become? All IMO were Cat 5's. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 16:05, August 23, 2014 (UTC) :::::I agree, except I think Kiko '83 was a strong 4. It's looking better and better with each passing advisory, should be a major by late tonight or early tomorrow. 'Ryan1000' 20:54, August 23, 2014 (UTC) ::::::It looks very fabulous at this moment. It's also very large and I fully expect at least a strong C4 at its peak with a shot at C5. If we give Marie the ice bucket challenge we would completely destroy it, let's give Karina the ice bucket challenge instead because it keeps stubbornly hanging on and not ever dying >:) --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 21:04, August 23, 2014 (UTC) Marie has had trouble clearing out it's eye. However, it is visible now. Adv brings it to 90 knts and has it peaking at 120 knts. May not get that strong since shear is kicking in slightly. Could still be a major. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 02:50, August 24, 2014 (UTC) :As soon as I type this, Marie is bombing out. Here we go at last. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 03:55, August 24, 2014 (UTC) ::Small eye visible on AVN.--Isaac829 05:02, August 24, 2014 (UTC) :::Still I'd like the eye to clear out more. It's a pinhole type and raw ADT are up to 6.9. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 05:04, August 24, 2014 (UTC) ::::Marie is looking large and dangerous. However, the models are fighting over how badly shear is going to affect it. UW indicates 5 to 10 knots of northeasterly shear around Marie, while SHIPS indicates 10 to 15 knots. Many models are suddenly thinking Marie is going to quit strengthening, which I don't see occurring unless an ERC occurs. The current NHC intensity is 90 knots (105 mph, 165 km/h)/971 mbar (hPa; 28.68 inHg), with a forecast peak of 120 knots (140 mph). Given how quickly she's coming together, I predict 105/964 as the next advisory intensity. AndrewTalk To Me 06:12, August 24, 2014 (UTC) ::::::You are already wrong. ATCF makes this 115 knts. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 06:53, August 24, 2014 (UTC) Major Hurricane Marie I am just speechless. Talk about EI! Marie didn't even bother becoming a C3! It has such a symmetric appearance on satellite imagery, and Dvorak estimates of T6.0 confirm ATCF's winds of 115 knots (135 mph, 215 km/h) with a pressure of 944 mbar (hPa; 27.88 inHg). And since conditions are favorable for even more development, I am much more certain Marie will become a C5, even though the current NHC forecast calls for 135 knots (155 mph). Unfortunately, decreasing SST's and drier air are to put an end to this madness in a couple of days. Motionwise, a ridge should continue moving Marie generally NW away from Mexico, although heavy surf will be a threat for some Pacific coasts. Who else is certain Marie will be a C5? AndrewTalk To Me 08:52, August 24, 2014 (UTC) : It has until late tomorrow or so to become a 5, when conditions begin to deteriorate. Let's cross our fingers...Ryan1000'' 10:11, August 24, 2014 (UTC) ::It should make it, but looks to be nearing its peak now. Let's pray on Dvorak. Worth noting is than if an ERC starts, it's all over and we get no Cat 5. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 12:26, August 24, 2014 (UTC) :::ATCF makes this 130/929. Henceforth, Marie is now the strongest TC of the season. Most intense EPAC storm since Dora 11 which was 135/929. Tied for most intense EPAC hurricane since Celia 10, which was 140/921. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 12:53, August 24, 2014 (UTC) ::::I'd rather use the winds as a tiebreaker, so in my book, Marie and Dora aren't tied; the former is second to the latter. Amanda still has Marie beat as the season windspeed champion, but still, wow. Unless it pulls a Cristina and ERCs soon, we just might get the Category 5 we've been wanting for 4 years. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:18, August 24, 2014 (UTC) ::::Raw T# of 7.3! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:21, August 24, 2014 (UTC) :::::ADT center fix has been off most of the time. Raw ADT's were at 7.7 peak, third highest in the EPAC history after Linda 97 and Rick 09 (both were 7.8). YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 14:33, August 24, 2014 (UTC) :::::(edit conflict) PARTY TIME! I knew Marie would smash Dora, Genevieve and Celia in their faces. GO GIRL! “i liek turtlez 14:43, August 24, 2014 (UTC) ::::::That's good to know YE, umm... holy cow. Header for the latest advisory: "...MIGHTY MARIE ON ITS WAY OUT TO SEA AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE..." I gotta say, "Mighty Marie" has a nice ring to it. The ATCF intensity was kept for the advisory. Forecast peak upped to 140 kts - Category 5 intensity! Last time I can recall when a Category 4 was officially forecast to become a 5 was, I believe, Igor. And the wind field is starting to reflect the true size of this thing. TS-force winds extend outwards a whopping '''255 miles' from the center! This storm is even bigger than Lowell! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:01, August 24, 2014 (UTC) :::::::Only 3 other EPAC TC's AFAIK were forecast to reach Cat 5. Not sure if it'll do it. Cloud tops warming to the NW, and outflow looks meh to the N and NW. We'll see. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 15:19, August 24, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::Almost there...come on Marie, you can get to cat 5. It's not every day NHC forecasts a cat 5, especially for EPac, if this becomes a 5 it'll be one of only 4 category 5's in the EPac during August, the others being John of 1994, Guillermo in 1997, and Ioke in 2006, and one of only two, the other being Guillermo, to reach that intensity in the EPac proper. 'Ryan1000' 15:45, August 24, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::COME ON MARIE, YOU CAN DO IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!leeboy100 (talk) 17:29, August 24, 2014 (UTC) ATCF is at 140 knts/918 mbar. I think it's gonna do it. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 19:08, August 24, 2014 (UTC) :The only way I can see Marie not being a Category 5 operationally is if it pulls an Elida '02 and weakens before the next advisory (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2002/dis/ep062002.discus.008.html, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2002/dis/ep062002.discus.009.html), and even then, it will be recognized as one in post-analysis. I think we can safely call this the EPAC's first Category 5 since Celia, and the strongest since Rick (Marie and Celia are tied for winds, but Marie's pressure beats Celia's by 3 mbar). By the way, Marie's pressure of 918 mbar ranks it as the sixth-strongest EPAC hurricane of all time. Only Linda (902), Rick (906), Kenna (913), Ioke, and Ava (both 915) beat it. Marie could still climb higher up the list before it inevitably starts to weaken. Keep up the good work, Marie! You go, girl! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 19:25, August 24, 2014 (UTC) :She is not the best cat 5 I have ever seen but she did it so congrats MARIE. I doubt she will strength more the northeast is side is loosing itself it was just upgrade because its clear a little bit more. Its the fifth strongest because Ioke was in the cpac.Allanjeffs 19:30, August 24, 2014 (UTC) ::CPAC is part of the EPAC in HURDAT. But you're right, cloud tops are worming and the NW outflow is pathetic. Eye super warm though, somewhat close to being as warm as Haiyan, the greatest TC of all time. It's CDO is downright awesome. Regarding Elida 02, the ATCF never upped it to 140 knts until after adv 10. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 20:11, August 24, 2014 (UTC) Category 5 Hurricane Marie Official from NHC. Forecast to peak here; in fact, an eyewall replacement may already be beginning: "a 1709 UTC AMSU pass indicates that a secondary eyewall is already forming, making it likely that an eyewall replacement will occur during the next day or so." Still, what a storm! Also, TS-force winds now extend up to 310 miles outward from the center, with hurricane-force winds extending 60 miles out. I wonder what the gale diameter of the largest EPAC TC on record was? I've certainly never tracked an EPAC storm as big as Marie. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:38, August 24, 2014 (UTC) : Marie has now surpassed Guillermo of 1997 as the strongest August storm ever recorded in the EPac proper (Ioke was stronger in CPac), and the first category 5 hurricane to cross the waters of the EPac, let alone the western hemisphere, since Celia of 2010. Hopefully it grinds up a little more intensity before dying out. 'Ryan1000' 20:49, August 24, 2014 (UTC) :: :O Very impressive! Congrats Marie for becoming the first EPAC C5 since Celia! Hip hip horray! Currently, Marie's at 160 mph/918 mbars. I'm a bit stunned Marie managed C5 strength.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 22:06, August 24, 2014 (UTC) :: YAY SHE DID IT CONGRATS MARIE :) leeboy100 (talk) 22:48, August 24, 2014 (UTC) LETS THROW A MASSIVE PARTY FOR MARIE!!!!!! :D “i liek turtlez 00:39, August 25, 2014 (UTC) :::I knew she was going to do it, and she did. :) Unfortunately, unless colder cloud tops develop, she's done for. Even better, Marie's trajectory keeps her offshore, soon to be steered by the STR. However, surf has caused its effects in Mexico - five people were wounded by heavy surf. P.S. Winds are now at 140 knots (160 mph, 260 km/h), with a pressure of 918 mbar (hPa; 27.11 inHg). AndrewTalk To Me 01:14, August 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::ATCF brings it down to 135 knts. It's run is over for now. ERC starting. Let's watch it get huge. Still I can not believe this went all the way to Category 5 status. YE [[Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season|'P'acific]] 01:33, August 25, 2014 (UTC) Major Hurricane Marie (2nd time) Powering down now, 130 kts/927 mbar per the latest advisory. Still an incredible storm. And YE, I'm not sure how much bigger this storm can get lol. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:41, August 25, 2014 (UTC) : Now down to 145 mph and 932 mbars. It seems Marie's peak as a cat 5 is over, so from here on out we'll have to be saying goodbye to Marie. At least it was amazing as a cat 5 while it lasted. 'Ryan1000' 09:13, August 25, 2014 (UTC) ::I think I see 3 or 4 eyewalls on this thing... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 19:13, August 25, 2014 (UTC) :::115 kt/939 mbar now. Gradually winding down. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:47, August 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::I'm surprised no one caught this before, but Marie's intensification to major hurricane status yesterday makes it the earliest 5th major hurricane of any Pacific hurricane season on record. It's also the first time since 2006 to have 3 major hurricanes in August. 'Ryan1000' 21:04, August 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::::Sixth counting Genny's last moments in the CPAC. Any chance we'll break the record of 10 set in 1992? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:27, August 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Considering the MJO here will die off somewhat in September, I'd guess we're probably gonna fall a little short of 1992's record. We might get 1, 2, or at most, 3 more major hurricanes, but unless this year pulls a Kenneth-like storm in November, 1992's record will most likely stand firm. EDIT: Furthermore, we will likely fall short of 1992 in terms of power and ACE, thus far this year we've had an ACE of about 119.5, which is about 120% of the annual mean as it is, but at this time in 1992, the ACE was about 141.7, plus two cat 4's (Orlene and Iniki) would form at the start of September, a week from now. 'Ryan1000' 22:23, August 25, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::Yeah the MJO which was most in the Epac in August is moving so I don't believe we might see many storms in the Epac and remember August is the peak for the Epac now things are going to slow down. Allanjeffs 22:55, August 25, 2014 (UTC) :::::::::October is a secondary peak IMO. Remember, two of the three strongest EPAC storms ever formed in the month (Rick and Kenna), and last year it gave us the season's only major in Raymond. Other strong October EPAC storms of recent years include Paul '12, Jova '11, Norbert '08 (who is next on this year's list, btw), Lester '98, and Pauline. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:00, August 26, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::Wow, Marie looks very large and awesome on satellite. Currently 135 mph/939 mbars. Well, it was nice that it became a Cat. 5 hurricane! :)--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:14, August 26, 2014 (UTC) ::::::::::::Now a 3, 115 mph and 952 mbars. It's really been losing itself lately, but it'll still stick around for about 4 more days or so. Yeah Dylan, in late October there's a secondary peak in activity for both the Atlantic and EPac around October 19, when the monsoon trough fires up one last time before departing the EPac and Caribbean and moving to the SHem for their season. Of course, we don't know how active it'll get at that time of year, but I'd still be quite surprised if this year can crank out 5 more majors. 'Ryan1000' 05:15, August 26, 2014 (UTC) Hurricane Marie (2nd time) Anyways, back to Marie, now it has lost it's major status and continuing to power down, 105 mph and 961 mbars. 'Ryan1000' 09:18, August 26, 2014 (UTC) :"Microwave data show that Marie continues to have a complicated inner core structure, with an remnant inner eyewall surrounded by a pair of larger concentric eyewall rings." So basically it has triple eyewalls? Wow... anyway it's down to 85 kt/965 mbar and its wind field has actually shrunk a little. TS winds extend up to 275 miles out from the center, as opposed to 310 earlier. Still huge though. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:48, August 26, 2014 (UTC) ::It's now 100 mph/968 mbars. It's weakening for good now, bye Marie it was fun tracking you!--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 20:58, August 26, 2014 (UTC) :::Cloud tops are warming in relation to Marie, and the hurricane is over decreasing SST's of 25C and below. Combined with drying air, Marie should turn post-tropical in a couple of days. A ridge should keep the hurricane moving generally NW away from any land, although heavy surf should continue to affect Mexico. Marie's current intensity is 75 knots (85 mph, 140 km/h), with a pressure of 974 mbar (hPa; 28.77 inHg). I really love this EPAC season, and I hate to hear the departure of the MJO. :( AndrewTalk To Me 10:51, August 27, 2014 (UTC) :::Hey at least now that Epac went to sleep the Atlantic wake up.Allanjeffs 13:37, August 27, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Marie (2nd time) Down to a 55 kt/989 mbar tropical storm. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 01:08, August 28, 2014 (UTC) : It also appears to be shrinking even more, surf might not be nearly as threatening now but still needs to be watched out for. 'Ryan1000' 01:22, August 28, 2014 (UTC) :: Marie was an awesome storm. Now that it appears to be dying out we might as well post our farewells to Marie as unfavorable conditions keep it in check. Bye, Marie! :) --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:37, August 28, 2014 (UTC) :::As Marie passes over SST's of 22-23C, ASCAT data reveals its winds are down to 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h), with a pressure of 992 mbar (hPa; 29.30 inHg). Dry air should prompt degeneration in ~24 hours, as the NHC expects. Marie is accelerating WNW under the influence of the high over Baja California, but low-level flow should prompt a slower westward motion as the storm rounds around the high. Swells should become less of a problem over the next few days. Marie, thank you for your splendid show! :) AndrewTalk To Me 03:38, August 28, 2014 (UTC) ::::Marie is still alive in the middle of nowhere. She's basically shallow convection over 21C SST's. ASCAT data supports an intensity of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h)/1001 mbar (hPa; 29.56 inHg). Low-level flow will steer the storm more WNW from here onwards, but it could hold on for a while due to its large size. I'm not expecting a re-Karina, however. AndrewTalk To Me 07:32, August 29, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie It could've survived longer, but NHC declared the last advisory. Hats off. 'Ryan1000''' 12:06, August 29, 2014 (UTC) :It was nice while it lasted. So long, Marie! :)--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:18, August 30, 2014 (UTC)